Forward-Looking Impact Intelligence

Know if your investment will work before you write the check.

The first probabilistic prediction engine for impact investments. Score proposed deals on outcome likelihood, map failure modes, and verify regenerative potential — before capital is deployed.

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Sample Assessment
Live Engine
Outcome Probability (SDG 2.1) 78%
Top Risk: Governance Breakdown 42%
Regenerative Rating B+
OPS / EVI 74 / 0.85
01

Outcome Probability Score

A single number with full explainability. What's driving the score up, what's pulling it down, and how it compares to similar investments.

"78% probability of meeting SDG 2.1 target. Team track record (+6%), governance (+5%), market timing (-6%)."
02

Failure Mode Map

The five most likely ways this investment fails, ranked by probability. An early warning system, not a post-mortem.

"Governance breakdown: 42%. Market failure: 23%. Regulatory shift: 14%."
03

Regenerative Verification

12 KPIs across 3 tiers predict whether the investment regenerates the ecosystem it enters. OPS/EVI quadrant shows trajectory.

"OPS 74 by Month 18 — Regenerative Engine zone. EVI 0.85 — approaching autonomy."
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Investment Profile Assessment

Enter the deal parameters below. Results are generated instantly using our prediction engine.

The primary impact sector of the investment
Primary region where capital will be deployed
Number of people on the implementing team
Total investment size in US dollars
$
The main Sustainable Development Goal this investment targets
How capital will be deployed to create impact
The causal logic connecting inputs to outcomes
Expected deployment and impact horizon
Who receives the direct benefit of this investment
Capital structure alongside this investment
Which organization or fund is running this assessment?
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Intelligence Tiers

Pre-deal clarity at every depth.

Start free. Upgrade when you need the full picture. Enterprise engagements available for complex mandates — tailored to your portfolio.

Tier 1
Lite Assessment
$1K / assessment

The entry point. Full predictive scoring on one deal, using constrained dropdown inputs — low enough for an analyst to expense without committee approval.

  • Full Outcome Probability Score (OPS)
  • Explainable score drivers
  • Complete Failure Mode Map (all 5 modes)
  • High-level risk snapshot
  • Regenerative grade (A/B/C)
  • Full 12 KPI breakdown
  • IRIS+ metric mapping
  • OPS/EVI trajectory quadrant
  • Free-text narrative inputs
Tier 2
Full Assessment
$2,500 / assessment

The complete intelligence package. Unlocks free-text inputs and returns the full scoring suite — everything an institutional investor needs before writing a check.

  • Full Outcome Probability Score (OPS)
  • Explainable score drivers
  • Complete Failure Mode Map (all 5 modes)
  • Full risk intelligence
  • All 12 Regenerative KPIs (Tier 1–3)
  • Full IRIS+ metric mapping
  • OPS/EVI quadrant with trajectory projections
  • Theory of Change narrative inputs
  • Detailed intervention design inputs
↓ Download sample report (PDF)
Tier 3
Enterprise Sprint
Custom Engagement

Bespoke scoring for complex mandates. For live deals, pre-authorization analysis, pre-underwriting, and due diligence stage deep dives — tailored to your portfolio.

  • Full live project scoring
  • Pre-authorization analysis
  • Pre-underwriting intelligence
  • Due diligence stage deep dives
  • Dedicated expert engagement
  • Custom deliverables + reporting
  • Ongoing advisory access
  • Multi-deal portfolio analysis
  • Team briefings + presentations

Free assessment available — returns a summary score. Run a free assessment →

⚑

Sample Assessment — Tier 2 Full Report. This is a redacted illustrative output based on a fictional deal. Data, organization names, and scores are for demonstration only. Run your own free assessment →

Tier 2 — Full Assessment

Lamu Solar Mini-Grid Expansion
East Africa, $5M Series A · SDG 7.1

Renewable Energy Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya) ★ SDG 7.1 — Universal Energy Access SDG 8.1 · SDG 13.2 28 people · $5M Equity + Concessional Debt 7–10 year horizon

Outcome Probability Score

Output 01
76% High confidence

Strong probability of achieving SDG 7.1 target by Year 5

Meridian Energy Access holds a compelling structural position: a 22-deployment track record, proven PAYG infrastructure, and co-investment from concessional lenders. The Lamu geography introduces grid defection and revenue collection complexity — factored into the score. Overall, the investment structure aligns well with SDG 7.1 target outcomes at the stated capital level.

Scored above 70% threshold — indicating strong alignment between investment structure and target outcomes.
Confidence Band
Low 69%
Central 76%
High 83%
Explainable Score Drivers
+
SDG 7.1 alignment with proven PAYG infrastructure model +8.1pp
+
Senior team track record — 22 mini-grids deployed in similar geographies +6.2pp
+
Co-investment structure (concessional debt + equity) — below-market cost of capital +4.8pp
+
Lamu County government partnership agreement — reduces licensing and land risk +3.9pp
−
Grid defection risk — national KPLC grid expansion program active in region −7.3pp
−
Revenue collection risk — mobile money penetration gaps in rural Lamu coastal communities −4.7pp
−
Single-sector concentration — no hedge against renewable-specific regulatory shifts −2.9pp

Failure Mode Map

Output 02

Five most probable failure modes ranked by likelihood. An early warning system, not a post-mortem.

Grid Defection Risk 38%
National KPLC grid expansion timeline is accelerating in coastal Kenya. If grid reaches Lamu communities ahead of mini-grid payback horizon, customer churn would compress returns below viability threshold.
Mitigation: Grid-integration-ready architecture; negotiate grid-complementary service agreements; pursue anchor commercial customers to supplement residential base.
Revenue Collection Failure 24%
PAYG model relies on mobile money infrastructure. Lamu coastal region has 61% mobile money penetration vs. 84% national average. Payment default cascades can trigger liquidity shortfalls within 6–9 months.
Mitigation: Multi-channel payment integration (M-Pesa + Airtel Money + community agent banking); pre-paid meter option for low-connectivity areas; community savings group partnerships.
Technical Workforce Shortage 19%
O&M requires locally trained solar technicians. Regional shortage of qualified personnel increases downtime risk, especially for battery system maintenance. Attrition to competing projects is elevated.
Mitigation: Embedded training program with Mombasa Technical University; skills-based retention contracts; deploy remote diagnostics to reduce on-site callout requirements.
Regulatory Licensing Delays 14%
KPLC licensing and ERC permitting processes in Kenya have introduced 8–18 month delays in comparable mini-grid projects. Construction capital deployed before license confirmation creates bridge financing risk.
Mitigation: Engage USAID-supported regulatory facilitation program; phase capital deployment to match license milestones; maintain 90-day cash reserve for bridge periods.
Capital Reflow Breakdown 11%
Community co-investment structure is complex: 12% of equity earmarked for community shares via village savings association. Governance disputes within community investment committees can block distribution and create legal liability.
Mitigation: Legal structuring through established cooperative framework; independent fiduciary oversight; community investment committee training with documented dispute resolution protocol.

Regenerative Verification Rating

Output 03
B+
Regenerative Assessment: Grade B+

Predicts whether this investment regenerates the system it enters — not just whether it hits SDG targets. Scored across 12 metrics in 3 tiers: Power Metrics (flywheel indicators), Fundability Metrics (institutional requirements), and Compass Needles (trajectory indicators). Trajectory toward A− at Month 18.

Tier 1 — Power Metrics (Regenerative KPIs)
CWR0.78
Community Wealth Retention
Fraction of revenue that stays within the local economy through wages, community shares, and local procurement.
Benchmark: ≥0.70 · Current: Above threshold
ERR41%
Ecosystem Revenue Reflow
Percentage of gross revenue reinvested into local ecosystem services, workforce, and community infrastructure.
Target: ≥50% · Trajectory: Approaching
LEM2.3×
Local Employment Multiplier
Every direct job created generates 2.3 indirect jobs in the local economy through supply chain and services.
Strong multiplier — above 2.0× threshold
TTI0.82
Technology Transfer Index
Degree to which technical knowledge and capabilities transfer to local teams — reducing long-term dependence on external expertise.
High local capacity signal (≥0.80)
Tier 2 — Fundability Metrics (Institutional KPIs)
PCR87%
PAYG Collection Reliability
Rolling 12-month mobile payment collection rate across comparable deployments. Directly drives revenue predictability for DFI covenant compliance.
High confidence for institutional underwriting
DFA0.91
Development Finance Alignment
Composite alignment with IFC, OPIC, and DFI investment standards across environmental safeguards, social risk management, and governance.
Strong DFI alignment — co-investment eligible
GIS0.73
Governance Independence Score
Degree of governance independence from founding team — board composition, independent directors, and conflict-of-interest protocols.
Good structure — room to strengthen
ADEHigh
Additionality Evidence
No commercial substitute exists for this service in the target geography. Energy access gap is documented and unserved by grid or alternative providers.
No commercial substitute — additionality confirmed
Tier 3 — Compass Needles (Meta-Scores)
OPS 76
Projected: 84 by Month 18
Zone: Regenerative Zone →
EVI 0.79
Projected: 0.88 by Month 24
Approaching autonomy threshold (0.85)
OPS / EVI Investment Trajectory Quadrant
Ecosystem Without EngineHigh EVI, Low OPS
Regenerative ZoneHigh OPS + High EVI
Foundation StageBuilding both dimensions
Power Without RootsHigh OPS, Low EVI
OPS →
Current position (OPS 76, EVI 0.79)
Projected Month 18–24 (OPS 84, EVI 0.88)

IRIS+ Metric Mapping

Interoperability

Each prediction output maps to standardized IRIS+ indicators for interoperability with institutional reporting frameworks (IFC, GIIN, OPIC, SDG Impact Standards).

Outcome Probability Indicators
PI5765
% of target population with access to clean energy services
Direct measure of SDG 7.1 attainment at community level
Strong
OI7398
Metric tonnes CO₂e avoided annually
Climate co-benefit — estimated 4,800 tCO₂e/year at full deployment
Strong
PI2520
Energy service reliability (uptime %)
Critical for household and micro-enterprise productivity impact
Moderate
OI4239
# of households with first-time electricity access
Target: 3,400 households by Year 3
Strong
PI8834
Local economic activity uplift from energy access
Indirect SDG 8.1 contribution — micro-enterprise enablement
Moderate
Risk Assessment Indicators
PI3421
Political risk index (host country)
Kenya: Moderate — regulatory environment improving but active grid policy risk
Moderate
PI5521
Technology obsolescence risk (battery storage systems)
LiFePO₄ battery lifecycle 10–12 years; replacement capital provisioned
Low Risk
OI2344
Revenue collection mechanism robustness
PAYG with mobile money; 61% regional penetration introduces moderate collection risk
Moderate
PI7732
Workforce development and retention adequacy
Training program in place; technician shortage in region is a known constraint
Developing
Regenerative Verification Indicators
PI4532
Community ownership structure and equity stake
12% community equity via village savings associations — legally structured
Strong
OI9821
Capital reflow to community (% of gross revenue)
41% current; approaching 50% target threshold by Year 4
Moderate
PI1123
Local technology adaptation and maintenance capacity
Technology Transfer Index 0.82 — strong local O&M capability development
Strong
OI7654
Ecosystem services preservation (land, water, biodiversity)
Solar infrastructure has minimal land footprint; no biodiversity-sensitive sites
Strong
PI3344
Inclusive governance design (gender, marginalized groups)
Community investment committee requires ≥40% women representation
Strong

Calculation Trace

Transparency Excerpt

Showing 3 of 14 scoring steps. Full calculation trace available in methodology PDF.

Step 1 of 14 SDG 7.1 Baseline Score — East Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa energy access baseline probability 52.0%
Renewable Energy sector weight applied (East Africa modifier: ×1.18) ×1.18
SDG 7.1 target complexity discount (universal access goal) −0.8pp
Step 1 subtotal 60.6%
Step 2 of 14 Team Track Record Modifier
Prior deployments in comparable geography: 22 mini-grids +6.2pp
Evidence quality assessment: High (verified portfolio data) Multiplier: 1.0×
Team size signal (28 people — mid-range for deal scale) +0.4pp
Running total after Step 2 67.2%
Step 5 of 14 Capital Structure & Blended Finance Modifier
Blended finance (concessional debt + equity structure) +4.8pp
Additionality premium (no commercial substitute in geography) +1.2pp
Capital amount signal — $5M confirmed full deployment +0.6pp
Running total after Step 5 (pre-risk deductions) 73.8%
→ Final OPS: 76% after all 14 steps including risk deductions, confidence band centering, and secondary SDG co-benefit weighting. See what's in the full methodology PDF →
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Full Assessment — Tier 2

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Full Tier 2 assessments include the complete failure map, 12-KPI regenerative rating, IRIS+ mapping, and calculation trace PDF.

Computing predictions...
Analyzing 12 regenerative KPIs across 3 tiers